SignalMacro

CBOE Nasdaq Volatility $22.32 ↑ 2.8% 25th %ile (neutral) • KXNASDAQ100Y 4.0% — 32,000 to 32,499.99

Kalshi: KXNASDAQ100Y 4.0% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

What changed

Kalshi: KXNASDAQ100Y 4.0% — Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 32000 and 32499.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? Percentile: 25th in 90d range | Regime: neutral

Why it matters

Volatility spike to 19th percentile signals complacency shift, while Kalshi market prices 4% odds on Nasdaq-100 year-end

Sources

futures